Champions League scenarios: What Barcelona, Chelsea and others must do to advance to knockout stages
Barcelona and Chelsea both find themselves far from where they want to be, but what do they need to move on?
Only two matchdays remain in the Champions League league phase, and there's still a ton to play for. Only five teams have clinched their places in the knockout stage, but none have clinched places in the top eight, which will secure passage directly to the round of 16. Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, and Atalanta are through to the knockouts no matter what happens, but 19 teams still need to join them. Also, with only two matchdays remaining, no team has been eliminated from knockout stage contention in what has been an extremely competitive league phase so far.
Major changes have happened during the break in UCL action, with Chelsea and Real Madrid both entering matchday seven with different managers than they finished matchday six with. More changes could be on the way as well with other clubs like Tottenham struggling in league play, but more places in the knockouts will be clinched during matchday seven, and all the action can be seen on Paramount+.
Let's take a look at what each team needs to move on:
Arsenal
Points: 18
Remaining games: Inter (a), Kairat (h)
Can make the top eight with: A win or a draw in their remaining two matches.
Can make knockouts with: Arsenal have clinched a place in the top 24.
Bayern Munich
Points: 15
Remaining games: Union Saint-Gilloise (h), PSV (a)
Can make the top eight with: A win in their remaining two matches.
Can make knockouts with: Bayern have clinched a place in the top 24.
Paris Saint-Germain
Points: 13
Remaining games: Sporting CP (a), Newcastle United (h)
Can make the top eight with: A win and at least a draw in their remaining two matches.
Can make knockouts with: PSG have clinched a place in the top 24.
Manchester City
Points: 13
Remaining games: Bodo/Glimt (a), Galatasaray (h)
Can make the top eight with: A win and at least a draw in their remaining two matches.
Can make knockouts with: Manchester City have clinched a place in the top 24.
Atalanta
Points: 13
Remaining games: Athletic Club (h), Union Saint-Gilloise (a)
Can make the top eight with: A win and at least a draw in their remaining two matches.
Can make knockouts with: Atalanta have clinched a place in the top 24.
Inter
Points: 12
Remaining games: Arsenal (a), Dortmund (h)
Can make the top eight with: Wins in their final two matches.
Can make knockouts with: At least three points in their final two matches.
Real Madrid
Points: 12
Remaining games: Monaco (h), Benfica (a)
Can make the top eight with: Wins in their final two matches.
Can make knockouts with: At least three points in their final two matches.
Atletico Madrid
Points: 12
Remaining games: Galatasaray (h), Bodo/Gimt (a)
Can make the top eight with: Wins in their final two matches.
Can make knockouts with: At least three points in their final two matches.
Liverpool
Points: 12
Remaining games: Marseille (a), Qarabag (h)
Can make the top eight with: Wins in their final two matches.
Can make knockouts with: At least three points in their final two matches.
Borussia Dortmund
Points: 11
Remaining games: Tottenham (a), Inter (h)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of at least two teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: A win in their remaining two matches.
Tottenham
Points: 11
Remaining games: Borussia Dortmund (h), Eintracht Frankfurt (a)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of at least two teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: A win in their remaining two matches.
Newcastle United
Points: 10
Remaining games: PSV (h), PSG (a)
Can make the top eight with: bettering the results of at least five teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Chelsea
Points: 10
Remaining games: Pafos (h), Napoli (a)
Can make the top eight with: bettering the results of at least five teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Sporting CP
Points: 10
Remaining games: PSG (h), Athletic Club (a)
Can make the top eight with: bettering the results of at least five teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least three points in their final two matches.
Barcelona
Points: 10
Remaining games: Slavia Praha (a), Copenhagen (h)
Can make the top eight with: bettering the results of at least five teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least three points in their final two matches.
Marseille
Points: Nine
Remaining games: Liverpool (h), Club Brugge (a)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of nine teams ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Juventus
Points: Nine
Remaining games: Benfica (h), Monaco (a)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of nine teams ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Galatasaray
Points: Nine
Remaining games: Atletico Madrid (h), Manchester City (a)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of nine teams ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Monaco
Points: Nine
Remaining games: Real Madrid (a), Juventus (a)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of nine teams ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
Bayer Leverkusen
Points: Nine
Remaining games: Olympiacos (a), Villarreal (h)
Can make the top eight with: Bettering the results of nine teams ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least four points in their final two matches.
PSV
Points: Eight
Remaining games: Newcastle United (a), Bayern Munich (h)
Can make the top eight with: A lot of help, bettering the results of 10 teams placed ahead of them.
Can make knockouts with: Two wins in their remaining two matches.
Qarabag
Points: Seven
Remaining games: Eintracht Frankfurt (h), Liverpool (a)
Can make knockouts with: Two wins in their remaining two matches.
Eliminated with: Securing one point or less in their remaining two matches while a team behind them betters their results.
Napoli
Points: Seven
Remaining games: Copenhagen (a), Chelsea (h)
Can make knockouts with: Two wins in their remaining two matches.
Eliminated with: Securing one point or less in their remaining two matches while a team behind them betters their results.
Copenhagen
Points: Seven
Remaining games: Napoli (h), Barcelona (a)
Can make knockouts with: Two wins in their remaining two matches.
Eliminated with: Securing one point or less in their remaining two matches while a team behind them betters their results.
Benfica
Points: Six
Remaining games: Juventus (a), Real Madrid (h)
Can make knockouts with: Bettering the results of one team ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to pick up a point in their remaining two matches.
Pafos
Points: Six
Remaining games: Chelsea (a), Slavia Praha (h)
Can make knockouts with: Bettering the results of one team ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to pick up a point in their remaining two matches.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Points: Six
Remaining games: Bayern Munich (a), Atalanta (h)
Can make knockouts with: Bettering the results of one team ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to pick up a point in their remaining two matches.
Athletic Club
Points: Five
Remaining games: Atalanta (a), Sporting CP (h)
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least two points while bettering the results of four teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to secure at least two points in their last two matches, while also not getting help elsewhere.
Olympiacos
Points: Five
Remaining games: Bayer Leverkusen (h), Ajax (a)
Can make knockouts with: Securing at least two points while bettering the results of four teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to secure at least two points in their last two matches, while also not getting help elsewhere.
EIntrach Frankfurt
Points: Four
Remaining games: Qarabag (a), Tottenham (h)
Can make knockouts with: Winning at least one remaining match while bettering the results of five teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to secure at least three points in their last two matches, while also not getting help elsewhere.
Club Brugge
Points: Four
Remaining games: Kairat Almaty (a), Marseille (h)
Can make knockouts with: Winning at least one remaining match while bettering the results of five teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Failing to secure at least three points in their last two matches, while also not getting help elsewhere.
Bodo/Glimt
Points: Three
Remaining games: Manchester City (h), Atletico Madrid (a)
Can make knockouts with: Winning their remaining games while bettering the results of eight teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Dropping any points in their remaining matches.
Slavia Prague
Points: Three
Remaining games: Barcelona (h), Pafos (a)
Can make knockouts with: Winning their remaining games while bettering the results of eight teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Dropping any points in their remaining matches.
Ajax
Points: Three
Remaining games: Villarreal (a), Olympiacos (h)
Can make knockouts with: Winning their remaining games while bettering the results of eight teams ahead of them.
Eliminated with: Dropping any points in their remaining matches.
Villarreal
Points: One
Remaining games: Ajax (h), Bayer Leverkusen (a)
Can make knockouts with: Winning their remaining games while 11 teams ahead of them fail to pick up points.
Eliminated with: Dropping any points in their remaining matches.
Kairat Almaty
Points: One
Remaining games: Club Brugge (h), Arsenal (a)
Can make knockouts with: Winning their remaining games while 11 teams ahead of them fail to pick up points.
Eliminated with: Dropping any points in their remaining matches.